The Truth Is Rarely Pure And Never Simple
A wild string of upsets keeps us on our toes as we roll into Week 7.
Welcome to week seven of the Square Attack newsletter! We’ve reached the biggest college football weekend of the year, not only from a real world/CFP ranking/TV rating perspective, but indeed from a gambling perspective as well. All those minutes you spent watch FCS teams break their bows on the rocks of FBS blue bloods in paycheck games, all those hours you spent agonizing over how to handicap new interconference matchups between rivals that now play in September instead of November, all those days you spent wondering whether Cam Rising had been Invasion of the Body Snatchers’d some time between the 2023 Rose Bowl and now - they’ve all led to this.
Whether you’re one of the Square Attack Editorial Board members that’s descending upon Autzen Stadium this weekend for the GAME OF THE MILLENNIUM between Oregon and Ohio State, or you’re someone who (like me) is too nervous to even think about said game, much less attend it in person, you’re going to need some actual information to supplement the emotion that can (and will) subsume you during this onslaught of high-stakes matchups.
So, in lieu of a jaunty anecdote about my personal life or a spreadsheet-fueled stats bonanza for our intro this week, I bestow upon you a handy list of excellent Twitter follows from across the college football universe. These are folks you may not be tuned in to because they don’t have “Barstool” in their handle, or because they’re tweeting about things like rush rate over expected numbers instead of what Deion Sanders said in his latest press conference. If I had to start my Twitter following list from scratch with 25 people, here’s who I’d pick:
STATS/NEWS/ANALYSIS
Bud Elliott, @BudElliott3
Bill Connelly, @ESPN_BillC
Parker Fleming, @statsowar
Alex Kirschner, @alex_kirshner
Matt Brown, @MattBrownEP
Kelley Ford, @KFordRatings
Shehan Jeyarajah, @ShehanJeyarajah
Game On Paper, @gameonpaper
Andrew Percival, @PDawg206
Bud Davis, @JBudDavis
PICKS AND GAMBLING TIDBITS
Brad Powers, @BradPowers7
Stuckey, @Stuckey2
Ben Fawkes, @BFawkes22
Joey Knish, @JoeyKnish22
Douglas Farmer, @D_Farmer
Keg, @GratefulKeg
steponaduck, @steponaduck1
CFB-ADJACENT ENTERTAINMENT
Spencer Hall, @edsbs
Ryan Nanni, @celebrityhottub
Sickos Committee, @SickosCommittee
Rodger Sherman, @rodger
r/CFB subreddit, @RedditCFB
ArtButMakeItSports, @ArtButSports
Jay Arnold, @CoachJayArnold
no context college football, @nocontextcfb
This is an excellent foundation on which to build your tiny house in the vast hellscape that is Elon Musk’s Twitter. If you use the mute function liberally, and pounce on a rogue line when you see it float through your timeline, you can change the internet’s worst app from something contributing to your degraded ability to interact with actual human beings into something that can enhance your college football watching and gambling experience.
(Oh, and follow us at @TheSquareAttack.)
To the picks - let’s get into it!
Disclaimer: NFA, DYOR, BOL. All lines/totals accurate as of whenever we happened to look them up. All times Pacific. This newsletter often shatters the Gmail size limit. Read in your desktop or mobile browser for the full Square Attack experience.
Friday Night Value Play: Brant Kuithe o45.5 Receiving Yards
Friday evening CFB picks, courtesy of Nate.
Last week (Syracuse +6.5 ✅): A strident example of why gambling on college football is so damn fun. This matchup had it all - Syracuse jumping out to an early 14-0 lead, which was then handed right back to UNLV before halftime thanks to the electric combination of Rebels QB Hajj-Malik Williams and WR Ricky White. As anyone that has attempted to defend Ricky White in EA CFB 25 can tell you, he is capable of tilting the field in such a way that concepts you can normally rely on such as “the number of points the other team is ahead” and “how much time is left in the game” become damn near immaterial. White’s blocked punt late in the 3Q kept UNLV tied, then he caught what we thought was the dagger for ‘Cuse +6.5 with three minutes remaining to make it 38-31. Thankfully for FNVP bettors, Kyle “Honda” McCord’s reliability despite many highway miles served as the decisive factor, as he tied it up late and let Syracuse to an OT win.
This week: It’s a rare player prop FNVP!
He’s over this number in 4 of 5 games, and with Cam Rising back, he might pepper him a ton with quick passes to make sure he doesn’t get hit.
Cam Rising, blink twice if you’ve been replaced by a body double. But throw it to Kuithe a lot first.
FNVP Season Record: 2-3
Hot Ones Guest Pick of the Week: Central Michigan +3
Random, GameDay-style guest picks, courtesy of whoever we feel like plugging in this week.
Last week (Duke +8 ❌): And right back we fall to .500, thanks to Tricky Dick. Richard Nixon, what do you have to say for yourself?
My fellow Americans, it is with great disappointment that I report on the Duke Blue Devils’ 24-14 loss to Georgia Tech. Despite having multiple opportunities to close the gap, Duke couldn’t capitalize when it mattered most. The fourth quarter was a particular struggle, as the Blue Devils were held scoreless and unable to mount the comeback we all hoped for. Though they battled valiantly, the execution just wasn’t there to overcome Georgia Tech's defense. While the final score may not reflect the potential we saw, this team has shown resilience before, and I have no doubt they’ll rise to fight another day. But tonight, unfortunately, was not our night.
This week: No more presidents, probably for the rest of the season. Let’s get weird. This week’s Hot Ones Guest Picker is Harry Dunne, self-employed dog groomer. (Jeff Daniels is a Central Michigan alum, bear with me here.)
Alright, folks, we’ve got a real nail-biter on our hands with this matchup between the Central Michigan Chippewas and the Ohio Bobcats. Now, I know Ohio’s favored by three points, but let me tell ya, I’ve got a feeling about our Chippewas! They’re playing at home, and you know what that means—home-field advantage! It’s like when you find an extra french fry at the bottom of the bag; it’s a small thing, but it sure makes a big difference. Plus, the Chippewas don’t turn the ball over very often, which is good because, well, giving the other team the ball is usually a bad idea!
And here’s the thing: I really think Central Michigan’s got what it takes to keep this one close, maybe even win. I mean, sure, Ohio’s got some skills, but you can’t count out a team that’s careful with the ball. They’re like, really careful—like the opposite of how Lloyd and I treat our van. So, if they can keep up the pressure and play smart, I think the Chippewas could surprise everyone and make this one go down to the wire. We’re getting three points at home so FOR GOD’S SAKE JUST GIMME THE DAMN NUMBER!
HOGPOTW Season Record: 3-3
Red White and Blue Support The Troops Pick of the Week: Air Force TT o23.5
Service academy picks, courtesy of Doty.
Last week (Navy TT o23.5 ✅): Never much of a doubt in this one, as Navy jumped all over the Falcons early and hit this number halfway through the third quarter. Navy rushed for nearly seven yards a carry, didn’t turn the ball over, surrendered zero sacks, and converted both of their fourth down attempts. Yeesh. I suppose they’re not called the Ground Force for a reason.
This week:
Air Force should be starting Quentin Hayes, who came in and went 5 for 6 passing and had some successful drives. He led the one scoring drive for Air Force, and they also had two drives that stalled out in Navy’s territory on downs.
New Mexico has the third worst defense in the country and second worst rush D in the country, they’re giving up 44 points per game.
We’re smashing the Air Force TT over 23.5 under the rejuvenated offense led by Quentin Hayes.
RWABSTTPOTW Season Record: 6-0
Fraud of the Week: Oregon ML
Top 25 teams to lose outright, courtesy of Cogan.
Last week (Florida St ML ❌): A preseason top 10 team is now sporting a 1-5 record AND it has nothing to do with Jimbo Fisher! Florida State officially put their transfer QB out to pasture, but Brock Glenn isn’t exactly Cardale Jones. Congratulations, Seminoles, you covered +16.5 by the hook! The bad news is that you’re still sporting a 1-5 record. Here’s to hoping that DJU’s potentially season-ending throwing hand injury won’t affect his ability to punch in credit card numbers into an Enterprise computer next year.
This week: Disclaimer for any CFB karmic spirits that maybe be listening - the views of this pick do not necessarily reflect those of the Square Attack Editor-In-Chief. I will be saying nothing about this game until the clock ticks off all 60 minutes, or whatever it takes.
FOTW Season Record: 3-6
New League, Who Dis? of the Week: USC ML
Picks for recently-realigned teams, courtesy of MvB.
Last week: No play.
This week:
The NLWD is BACK and shipping it on USC ML. Need them to show up one time. Penn State coming cross-country after a lackluster showing against UCLA and four straight home games. How is that allowed? Please, USC defense, tackle a few guys and get us out of a hole. Also, no one will be watching this game. How is it also at 12:30? 2U ML BANGER.
NLWDOTW Season Record: 0-4
All (Under)Dogs Go To Heaven, Especially Those That Pull The Upset: West Virginia ML
Underdog plays, courtesy of Tom.
Last week (West Virginia ML ✅): Country (on the) road(s), take us home! The ‘Neers came out swinging against Mike “Drunk Driving Is Pretty Cool, Actually” Gundy and his ancient-ass quarterback, racking up a 24-nil lead before the Ollie Gordon train could even leave the station. Tough to tell how many scans the NIL collective QR codes on the Cowboys’ helmets got last week, but it better be a lot if they want to successfully defend home turf again any time soon.
Tiktok failed to load.Enable 3rd party cookies or use another browser
This week: Thanks for giving me and excuse to give me to post the greatest Tik Tok of all time. Your thoughts, Tom?
I think this was the hardest week yet to make a pick. So many that I like, but not one that really jumped out to me. It feels very square to do it, but I think I gotta go back to the well and take West Virginia again. LSU is a close 2nd with a night game at home. 3rd is the Ducks and 4th is USC because I think these Big 10 teams might struggle with there first cross country road trips. Also there was a serious part of me that wanted to get frisky and take Florida. Tell me why Tennessee can’t lose again with Alabama on deck. Or Oklahoma in a rivalry game where anything can happen with Texas peaking ahead to Georgia. And Colorado is not as bad as everyone thinks they are. Just like they were never as good as everyone thought they were at the beginning of last season. Honestly if one of the other ones tickles you more then the Mountaineers feel free to switch it up. Maybe I’m cocky after all the upsets last week but I think all of these could happen.
Take a deep breath, Tom. Lotta football tomorrow. Save your energy.
AUDGTHETTPTU Season Record: 3-3
Vote of the Week: BYU -3
Any team, any line, any total - no requirements, just vibes, courtesy of K Boss.
Last week (ECU -8 ❌): It was certainly fun fading Biff in the first two weeks of the season, but by golly does that portly gentleman know how to get his offense going against bad teams. Charlotte ran roughshod over the Pirates defense, blasting cannonball-sized holes in the ECU front seven to the tune of 311 (!!!) yards rushing. Not even 200 combined yards of penalties between these two teams could stop this game from going way over - I’m not sure we learned much of anything other than that this bet was cooked, fried, sautéed, broiled, flambéed from the jump.
This week: Kaitlin comes to us with two TV recommendations this week, one of which you can theoretically gamble on and involves the main characters rotating in and out of various commitments, and the other of which is college football:
I think I’m feeling BYU -3 in honor of the soft swinger Mormon wives.
VOTW Season Record: 2-4
Sicko Mode Ick of the Week: [NO PLAY]
The grossest plays for true sickos only, courtesy of POC.
Last week (Washington TT u21.5 ❌): The only thing worse than watching the Huskies win is watching the Huskies win a cathartic game in which they avenge a national championship loss, hit the over on the team total you bet the under on, and probably puts them on a path to clear their RSW number, which you, of course, bet the under on.
This week: No play. Vaccine week for the Sicko Mode. Rest, hydrate, avoid operating heavy machinery, etc etc.
SMIOTW Season Record: 3-3
Big Cat's Make 'Em Say Meow Catnip of the Week: [NO PLAY]
College Against the Spread (CATS) picks focused on large feline mascots, courtesy of Dubov.
Last week (Mizzou ML ❌): I’ve said it before in this here newsletter, and I stand by it - if you’re gonna lose a bet, lose it by a lot. And Mizzou, thank you for agreeing with this premise! It was nice to be able to free up a slot in the YouTube TV multiview somewhere around the time Texas A&M housed their first play after halftime for a 75 yard TD to extend their lead to 31-0. Real cordial of you, Mizzou. Hope you enjoyed that top 10 ranking while it lasted.
This week: No play.
BCMESMCOTW Season Record: 2-4
Tiny Meat Lock of the Week: Nevada +3.5
Obscure G5 and FCS picks, courtesy of Nate.
Last week (Colorado State/Oregon State o47.5 ✅): Extending our thought process from the pick above, you know what’s better than losing a bet almost immediately? Winning a bet at the very last second. Casual scoreboard watchers might see “CSU 31, OSU 39” and think “wow, what a shootout!” And to those casuals I say: look more closely. The Beavs were clinging to a 14-10 lead at halftime. Then they played an entire quarter of football. Then they were still clinging to that 14-10 lead, both teams having gone scoreless in the third frame. Luckily, Colorado State converted a two point conversion with under two minutes remaining to make it a 24-21 game, forcing Oregon State to make a game-tying field goal at the very end of regulation. If CSU fails that 2PT, Beavs nail the kick and win 24-22 in a heartbreaking under. So thank you, math, for working in our favor for once.
This week: The aforementioned Beavs are heading out to the desert, and certain G5 handicappers don’t like their chances:
Oregon State gotta go to Reno and play at elevation + they really shouldn’t have beat Colorado State last week.
…Well, yeah, but they hit the over!
TMLOTW Season Record: 3-3
Confirmed Ball Knower Props of the Week
Player props for true #heads, courtesy of Zach.
Last week (4-0):
This is the definition of a what have you done for me lately industry. Past winners won’t help readers profit this week, and past players we’ve backed only become harder to find value betting on as oddsmakers slowly catch on to whatever information edge it was that lead us to that winning bet. Celebrating 4-0 for a third straight weekend was indeed electric, but that celebration ended as soon as the final game of the week hit 0:00, and I was back in the lab on Sunday night trying to identify potentially advantageous spots to bet this week. It’s an exciting slate of games with an equally appetizing slate of props to bet on this week, so let’s get to it.
This week:
Gunnar Helm (TEX) o35.5 Receiving Yards
Oddsmakers just aren’t properly adjusting for Helm’s splits with Ewers vs. recent games with Arch. Have been on this since it opened at 28.5, and think it’s a great bet up to 44.5.
Helm is one of Ewers favorite targets, and he had over 70 yards against Oklahoma last year. The Sooners zone blitz scheme tends to allow a lot of yardage to TE’s, including over 70 to Auburn TE Rivaldo Fairweather in their most recent game. Helm could hit this as a piece of a thriving Texas Passing Game, or via a series of checkdowns if Oklahoma is successfully creating pressure on Quinn, this prop having a clear path to cashing regardless of game script combined with the books not properly pricing in the Ewers/Arch splits for Helm make it my favorite prop of the week.
Jaylin Noel (ISU) o63.5 Receiving Yards
I’m still trying to figure out why this line has dropped since it opened. West Virginia runs a highly ineffective zone scheme that has been torched for big plays all season. The Mountaineers pass coverage is among the worst in the country in PFF grading, EPA per dropback faced, and success rate per dropback faced.
While Noel’s number has dropped since opening at 70.5, Everyone is hammering Noel’s teammate Jayden Higgins, who while likely lead the Cyclones in targets, is not as good of a bet to cover his number as Noel is at this point. Noel’s prop is now 25 yards lower than Higgins, despite Noel leading the team in yardage and excelling against the type of zone coverage they’ll see from West Virginia. Noel is incredibly explosive, and it would be shocking if he doesn’t break at least one play for 30+ against a West Virginia defense that is PFF’s lowest graded P4 coverage unit on balls thrown 10+ yards in the air. Noel is second in FBS in yards per route run against zone coverage, and I expect him to finish with 90+ yards.
Note: I’ll be on Higgins as well because I think they both cover, but don’t see a world where neither covers, so it operates as something of a hedge. Will also likely do an sgp of both Higgins and Noel’s yardage with Becht’s passing yards over.
Avery Johnson (KST) o68.5 Rushing Yards
Back to the well we go. This has gone up 8 yards since open, and is definitely the most square/public prop of the week, but this is indeed the square attack, and the people are right on this one. Avery should have a huge rushing total against a Colorado team that struggles to generate a pass rush, and plays man coverage with their backs to the QB as often as anyone in the country. While Colorado is much better in run defense this year than most casual fans realize, I’d expect Avery to clear this number on scrambles on passing plays alone, let alone the yardage he will pick up via designed QB runs. The high scoring, high play volume, back and forth game I expect this to be is the ideal game script for an easy cover here. This game should have fireworks, and will be on Shedeur’s passing over as well.
Jai'Den Thomas (UNLV) o39.5 Rushing Yards
I’m going with a bit of a heat check here by going away from the type of bets I’ve made on this current run, but this one is truly good process and a good bet. When you’re betting on an individual player prop over/under, the goal is usually to find bets that you believe can win regardless of game script. That said, there can be plenty of value in finding game scripts that will impact a team’s stats compared to their averages so greatly that the amount of variance makes it difficult for books to price properly. Utah State is one of the worst teams in the country at defending the run and UNLV should run early and often on them.
While much like his predecessor at QB Matthew Sluka, Hajj Malik Williams has been UNLV’s leading rusher since taking over as QB1, I prefer betting on Jai’den to cover 39.5 over HMW covering 79.5.
I will still be betting on Ricky White’s receiving over this week despite it not being as great of value as last week’s easy cover. The fear with Ricky here is there’s a nonzero chance that UNLV doesn’t need to throw after the first half, or that UNLV rests Ricky for the second half like Boise State did with Jeanty last week. That said, I do expect Ricky to clear 100 yards in the first half.
UNLV being so RB by committee heavy definitely scares me here, but I expect Thomas to finish with at least 10 carries, and I don’t think he’ll need more than six or seven carries against this truly awful Utah State defense to clear this number and get our week started out with a Friday Night win yet again.
CBKPOTW Season Record: 19-6
Mad Max TOVERDRIVE Pick of the Week: Ole Miss/LSU o62.5
Sharp totals, courtesy of Tav.
Last week (Texas Tech/Arizona o64 ❌): A surprisingly low-wattage Big 12 After Dark matchup that came a full two TDs short of the number. The Red Raiders are now a very quiet 5-1 after holding Arizona to 3/14 on third down. A combined three fumbles and four sacks doomed this total from about the second quarter on.
This week:
I’ve seen enough of that LSU defense to take the TOVER with Lane Train coming to town.
MMTPOTW Season Record: 2-4
Five Dollar Vibes Parlay of the Week
CFB parlays cooked up in less than one minute, courtesy of Colton.
Last week: No play.
This week: No play. This is a dangerous slate and we’re going to avoid tempting fate by picking three winners. One at a time. Slow and steady. Etc etc.
FDVPOTW Season Record: 0-5
Dead To Us
Each week we welcome the teams, players, and betting strategies that have burnt us the worst to the Dead To Us afterlife.
We welcome the following to the Dead To Us ranks:
James Madison. Lost outright as -16 favs to UL-Monroe. Gross.
Western Michigan. Gave up 42 to a horrific Ball State team and failed to cover.
Tennessee. Lost outright as two-TD favs to a Jekyll and Hyde Arkansas team.
Slush Fund Update
The Square Attack Slush Fund tracks the success of our main weekly picks ($25 units, $2500 starting balance). Note: Party Favors are not included for the purposes of the Slush Fund.
2024 Square Attack Season Record: 50-49
Slush Fund Account Balance: $2,633.49
CFB Watch Grid
Courtesy of Jason Kirk, one of the Square Attack Editorial Board’s favorite CFB writers. Follow him on Twitter here and on Substack at JasonKirk.fyi.
