In the immortal words of Jim Nantz, HELLO FRIENDS, and welcome to the second annual Degen’s Guide to The Masters, presented by the Square Attack (officially) and AllGames365.com (unofficially). You know the drill, open this video up in a new tab and join me as we drive through the entrance gates and down Magnolia Lane:
It’s been a long two months since the Super Bowl, and a short three days since the women’s Final Four, but we all know the true start of spring - four days of the lush vistas and cheap sandwiches at The Masters. I find myself coming up from air after a whole thirteen games of regular season baseball in desperate need of the gambling equivalent of a float tank, and lo and behold, Augusta National is there to provide, swaddling me (and you) in a weighted blanket of green turf and gentle piano themes.
We’ve got an ENTICING slate of picks for you this week to get the juices almost as flowing as if you were standing on the 12th tee with a one-stroke lead on Sunday, organized from Boring Picks, to Long Shots, to Degen Corner and, of course, MvB’s MEGA GOAT WHALE PLAY. We’re leveraging the Data Golf numbers, forthwith referred to as The Model™️, in case you were wondering if we’re pulling these completely from thin air.
First on the tee? It’s you, buddy. Fire away.
BORING PICKS
Tournament Matchups
Wyndham Clark +100 vs Tony Finau
We kick off with the defending U.S. Open champion, hotel-monikered Wyndham Clark. He’s currently ranked fourth in the world and ranked first on the list of “former Oregon Ducks that I trust to put the ball in the right place”, just slightly ahead of Bo Nix and 638 spots ahead of Anthony Brown. We get even money against Finau, whose best Masters finish was five years ago, and whose most-played Masters highlight is of him rolling his ankle celebrating a hole-in-one during the Par 3 Contest.
More like Tony FADE-au, amirite.
Collin Morikawa -110 vs Justin Thomas
The Model™️ does not think highly of Justin Thomas this week, placing him at +214 to even scratch the top 20. Morikawa, on the other hand, comes in at a comfortable +174.
DraftKings is giving us a coin flip, making this an easy value pick.
Xander Schauffele +100 vs Jon Rahm
I am beyond confident that we’re getting a 20-30 cent odds discount here simply because Schauffele (hard to spell, hard to pronounce) is facing Rahm (easy to spell, name kinda rhymes). We didn’t win the Spanish-American War of 1898 just for you to fade a red-, white-, and blue-blooded patriot from [checks notes] San Diego against a Spaniard on home (-ish) territory at even money.
Adam Scott -140 vs Sergio Garcia
Between this and the pick above, it is certainly possible that one of the Data Golf quants had their heart broken by a Spanish heartthrob and is exacting revenge the only way they know how, but The Model™️ has Garcia at -165 to make the cut while Scott is a STOUT -274. We’ll pay the 30 cents of juice for that significant of a delta.
Tournament Finish
To Win: Xander Schauffele +1400
The Xan Man is one bad dude on the golf course, and he is on one hell of heater to start the season:
Six T10s and four T5s in eight tournaments! My guy is hungry for a W, and if you’re playing locked in golf like he is, Augusta is as good a place as any to convert a run of consistent high finishes into a victory.
Top 5: Jordan Speith +400
I was really excited to put Speith here - the numbers love him this week, he’s got a huge Masters monkey that he’d love to fling off his back, etc etc - but this is not the headline you want to see 48 hours before the biggest tournament of the year:
If you feel that you are confident in your ability to accurately diagnose the symptomatology of an extensor capri ulnaris tendon issue, by all means, fire on Speith T5, but unfortunately, this is a stay-away for me.
[Press time update: MvB passes along this tweet that makes me feel better about scratching Speith from the card:]
These are the hands of someone who has literally white-knuckled his way through every one of his career 267 PGA Tour events.
Top 10: Matt Fitzpatrick +280
This. This is the English man you should be investing your hard-earned American dollars in this weekend:
To say that The Model™️ is a fan of Fitzy would be an understatement: Data Golf has him seventh (!!!) in overall T20/T10/T5 odds, and yet you have to scroll all the way down to 15th on the DraftKings odds to find him languishing amongst the Dustin Johnsons and the Patrick Cantlays of the world. That, friends, is the very definition of #value.
LONG SHOTS
To Win: Tommy Fleetwood +4500
Victor Hovland is in a bit of a funk after some swing changes…Joaquin Niemann is a LIV traitor…Bryson Dechambeau is permanently haunted by the ghosts of Byron Nelson and Ben Hogan after claiming Augusta was a “par 67” for him. That leaves us with Tommy Fleetwood, another Brit with a pair of T10s so far this year whom The Model™️ pins at a respectable 11th in winner odds.
However, this pick is really just an excuse to post this clip:
Tommy also has the “Win One For The Gipper” motivation of his caddie, Ian Finnis, being out sick and off Fleet’s bag for the first time since the 2018 U.S. Open. Hell, I’m already on a flier of Fleetwood +7000 to win. Excited for my check for 2500 cents of closing line value to arrive in the mail!
Top 5: Matt Fitzpatrick +650
TRUST THE MODEL™️ 🏴🏴🏴
Top 10: Russell Henley +360
Alright, that’s enough Brits. Russell Henley is a dude that simply loves to shoot 69:
Yes, that’s nine 69s in under 30 rounds of golf (nice). Four 69s at Augusta puts you at 276 total for a tournament where the average winning score is 279. That’s the math, and it’s up to you to see what I see here.
DEGEN CORNER
Props
Winner from OUTSIDE +200 the Final Pairing
Considering that the three-headed Cerberus of Scottie/Rahm/McIlory is comprised of a guy whose wife is about to have a kid (i.e., one phone call away from a WD), last year’s champ (the last B2B Masters champ was Tiger, over two decades ago), and Rory McIlroy (self-explanatory), even if two of these three make the final group on Sunday, we may have a chance from further back in the field.
Winner to Birdie 72nd Hole: YES +600
This bet speaks to me for reasons that make very little mathematical or historical sense. Holly is the 7th toughest hole on the course, and only 28 birdies were made there all tournament last year. However, if we’re knotted up or (even better) if we’re going onto the 18th tee with at least one of the final pairing down one stroke, how juiced are you going to be holding a +600 ticket needing a great approach or a great putt to cash?
Top Lefty: Akshay Bhatia +200
The first Drive Chip and Putt champion to ever win a PGA tournament, coming off a riveting playoff victory at the Texas Open, the last to punch his ticket into the field, and the only lefty above him in the odds is Phil Mickelson? Sure, he just dislocated his shoulder during a fist pump, the same shoulder he originally dislocated playing pickleball (not a joke, look it up).
But, give me this irrationally confident 6’1”, 130lb stickbug every day of the week at these odds.
o1.5 Hole-in-Ones (Holes-In-One…?): +225
This would be a bad bet even if the odds were 10-1. It’s happened a grand total of six times in Masters history. That is why it’s in the Degen Corner. Take the -165 for a single hole-in-one at Hole 16, if you’re a coward.
Camillo Villegas 1st Hole Score: Bogey or Worse +145
Yes, there are many other options for a “first hole bogey” bet that sit more in the +200 range. However, The Double L King himself, Camillo Villegas, is sitting in the bottom decile among all professional golfers in Strokes Gained Off The Tee, which is golf nerd lingo for “can’t hit the broad side of a goddamn barn”:
With an 8:18am PT tee time, this is the best bet to kick your week off with a plus-money bink before your betting card falls apart like Francesco Molinari on the Sunday back nine.
Low Amateur: Stewart Hagestad +333
SAY LESS, WSJ. A veteran competing in his third Masters, today is his birthday and his Mom was his caddie for the Par 3. This quote from an incredible Tuesday interview is the kicker:
I try to bring my best and I assume everyone else will bring their best. Whatever happens after that, I will still be back in the office working next Monday. Aside from pretty unique circumstances, life isn’t going to change all that much.
This is what I would call the rare “jealous of your incredible life” hedge.
Cut Parlays
Out With The Old: Mickelson, Woods to MISS the cut +211
Listen, I know this sucks. But time and the game of golf wait for no man. Mickelson, a year removed from a fairly miraculous second place finish, doesn’t have the same level of “LIV against the world” narrative to throw in everyone’s faces, even as the LIV/PGA merger process has stalled. Tiger, on the other hand, is inventing new ways to get headline writers to bum me out:
This isn’t the NBA, there are no referees to tilt the game in the favor of past-their-prime stars. Golf is unforgiving, and this is a great way to emotionally hedge against seeing two of the sport’s greats prematurely free up their weekend plans.
In With The New: Aberg, Clark, Hojgaard to MAKE the cut +162
Meanwhile, we find ourselves consider where the game is going. This young gun trio of Ludvig Aberg (the first golfer to ever play in the Ryder Cup before a major), Wyndham Clark (see above, go Ducks), and Nicolai Hojgaard (a Dane who, along with his brother Rasmus, became the first pair of brothers to win back-to-back on the European Tour) offers some value. The Model™️ likes Hojgaard at -163 to make the cut despite some recent struggles, and since DraftKings has him at -140, pairing him with some bigger favs makes this a Friday sweat worth watching.
MEGA GOAT WHALE PLAY OF THE WEEK
We welcome Square Attack Guest Contributor MvB for the MEGA GOAT WHALE PLAY OF THE WEEK…
Tournament Winning Score: o276.5
And that’s it, folks. Fire up some pimento cheese sandwiches on DoorDash, set your out of office reply, and enjoy the next four days of Golf Nirvana, hopefully with some cash in your pocket on Sunday to show for it.