Be Yourself, Because Everyone Else Is Taken
We round the corner on the CFB regular season and head down the back stretch towards the playoff.
Welcome to week eight of the Square Attack newsletter! It is with a bittersweet mix of excitement and dread that I remind you that we are, both chronologically and emotionally, roughly halfway through the college football regular season. I caveat that statement with regular, because while we are approximately equidistant from the Florida State vs Georgia Tech week zero opener in Dublin (lol, remember that?) and what might be the second of two Army vs Navy games (if current trends continue), we still have another five weeks of bowls and playoff football beyond that December 14th matchup.
Now seems an appropriate time to check on our regular season win totals bets. Yes, some have already cashed and we’re already reinvesting the winnings (hell yes, Army), and yes, some are already deader than Bronny James ROTY bets (oh god, Wyoming), but for the most part, we’re treading water and waiting for some critical games to be decided. (If you’re confused as to what constitutes “our” RSW totals bets, please consult the SQUARE ATTACK SEASON PREVIEW, if for no other reason than to laugh at the fact that I’m now 0-2 on predicting how good Arizona State will be at football in consecutive years).
Some notes:
The goal was 2-1 on service academy bets, and all three of those might be settled at 2-1 by Halloween!
Alabama beating Georgia might have effectively sunk both of those bets, but thankfully, UNC beating Minnesota has not guaranteed that UNC will go over or that Minnesota will go under.
Ohio State needs one more loss, Texas and Liberty can survive one more loss. Betting on the 10.5 totals is fun.
Fading teams you think will be awful can be very exciting (needing Tulsa to beat Temple is some real sicko stuff), or extremely stupid (ASU, BYU, and dare I say it, Colorado).
To summarize, we might be halfway through, but we’re really just getting started.
Let’s get into it!
Disclaimer: NFA, DYOR, BOL. All lines/totals accurate as of whenever we happened to look them up. All times Pacific. This newsletter often shatters the Gmail size limit. Read in your desktop or mobile browser for the full Square Attack experience.
Friday Night Value Play: Jordan James o109.5 Rushing Yards
Friday evening CFB picks, courtesy of Nate.
Last week (Brant Kuithe o45.5 Rec Yds ❌): An all-timer of a brutal FNVP loss here. First, we get our hopes up that Cam Rising might be back and ready to dink and dunk Brant to a victory. Then, much to our chagrin and/or horror, we start realizing that Cam Rising is nowhere near capable of a brisk jog, much less getting his weight into a throw to the tight end that we only need to haul in a small handful of catches of modest yardage. Rising completed consecutive passes to Kuithe in the middle of the third to get him to 44 yards, missed him on a wide open ball near the end of the quarter, and never targeted him again. Rising is now out injured for the season, and the phrasing of Kyle Whittingham’s announcement seems to indicate that Cam better fire up LinkedIn, because an eighth season at Utah is not in the cards.
This week: Fresh off 23 carries for 115 yards and a win in their toughest test yet, Jordan James gets to face a Purdue team that ranks 131st out of 134 teams in rushing EPA allowed. In a season where Ashton Jeanty has completely obliterated our idea of what top-tier college running back performance looks like, James is quietly having himself a hell of a year, averaging 6.0 YPC and over one TD per game. Even in a scenario where the Spoilermakers come out flying on offense (like they did in the second half against Illinois last week), that only increases the odds that Dan Lanning will put the ball in the hands of his best player and run it behind his best tackle.
FNVP Season Record: 2-4
Hot Ones Guest Pick of the Week: Georgia/Texas o55
Random, GameDay-style guest picks, courtesy of whoever we feel like plugging in this week.
Last week (Central Michigan +3 ✅): Probably my favorite game of the year, as the Chips claw their way back from a huge halftime deficit to cover in a loss against the Bobcats, 27-25. Harry Dunne, take your victory lap:
Wow, what a game! Can you believe it? The Central Michigan Chippewas were down 24-0, and I thought, "Well, this is a tough one!" But then, bam! They started coming back like a bad haircut that just won’t go away! They kept chipping away at that lead, and before you knew it, they were right back in it! They didn’t just make it close—they covered the spread! I mean, who would’ve seen that coming? Just when I’m ready to write this team off into the Dead To Us section, they come back and TOTALLY REDEEM THEMSELVES!
This week: This week’s Hot Ones Guest Picker is Texas alum and movie star Matthew McConaughey:
Alright, alright, alright, folks! We’ve got ourselves one heck of a showdown this weekend—my Texas Longhorns goin' up against the Georgia Bulldogs. Now, let me tell ya, this one’s got scorin’ written all over it. Georgia’s runnin’ the ball like a dream, ranking top 5 in rushing EPA, and when they get that ground game rollin’, it’s like a well-oiled machine. But don’t sleep on Texas, man—we’re sittin’ top 5 in passing EPA, and that air attack is gonna light up the scoreboard like it’s a Friday night on Rainey Street. Both teams know how to move the ball, and this one’s gonna be fast-paced, full of fireworks, and ain’t nobody slowin' down.
Texas is gonna come out with swagger, and Georgia’s gonna push right back with that rushing attack. It's not just about the game; it's about tempo, and both these teams know how to pick up the pace. I’m tellin’ ya, that total of 55 points? We’re goin' over that like it's a speed limit on the open road, baby.
HOGPOTW Season Record: 4-3
Red White and Blue Support The Troops Pick of the Week: Army/ECU o51.5
Service academy picks, courtesy of Doty.
Last week (Air Force TT o23.5 ✅): Our blitzkrieg towards a profitable RWABSTTPOTW season continues as Air Force, for lack of a better term, gets their collective shit together on offense just in time. The replacement of QB John Busha with QB and actual running threat Quentin Hayes has transformed the Falcons’ ability to move the ball, as they cleared this number by nearly two full touchdowns. Did they pass the ball well? No. Did they win this game, against a very bad New Mexico team? Also no. But the Air Troops got the job done when it mattered most, and for that, we salute them.
This week: After weeks of cajoling the AP to include our nation’s finest from the Top 25, we finally get to revel in the fact that BOTH the Land Troops AND the Sea Troops get a tiny number next to their logos this week. We’re going over in this Black Knights vs Pirates matchup, as Army is averaging a clean 40.0 PPG, and ECU is mired in the triple digits of EPA allowed on defense, giving up 191, 170, and 311 (yikes) rushing yards to Liberty, UTSA, and Charlotte in their last three games. If you’re feeling frisky, look for a Bryson Daily longest rush prop and fire all cannons.
RWABSTTPOTW Season Record: 7-0
Fraud of the Week: Arkansas ML, Auburn ML
Top 25 teams to lose outright, courtesy of Cogan.
Last week (Oregon ML ✅): I mean, what else is there to say? The Oregon Ducks beat the #2 ranked Ohio State Buckeyes in the biggest regular season game in Autzen Stadium history. If you’re the type of fan who watches college football through a binary lens of win and loss records, the expanded playoff has taken marginal amounts of import away from games like this. If you’re the type of fan that sat dejected in the student section after Oregon shot themselves in the webbed feet in high-pressure games time after time in the early 2010s, wondering if this team would ever rise to the occasion and earn the hype and praise that pundits heaped upon it (while always reserving a sentence or two about being unable to win against the blue bloods when it mattered), questions of playoff seeding and rematches don’t cross your mind. I’ll save the longform thoughts on this team for later in the season, but for now, enjoy 19 minutes of pure, uncut Oregon football pride:
This week: The Square Attack Editorial Board has sent one of its members on a journalistic envoy to Fayetteville, and Cogan comes to us this week with a missive live from the Arkansas Natatorium: he likes the Hogs to sneak up on the Bayou Bengals, and in a Tigers on Tigers matchup, he’s taking Auburn to beat Mizzou. Those holding LSU -2.5 tickets may prefer to save their thoughts in the event that Arkansas pulls this off, as it’s hard to imagine we’ll be getting any texts back from Cogan for the several hours and possibly days following a potential upset in this game.
FOTW Season Record: 4-6
All (Under)Dogs Go To Heaven, Especially Those That Pull The Upset: Maryland ML
Underdog plays, courtesy of Tom.
Last week (West Virginia ML ❌): Unfortunately, it appears that Iowa State is, in fact, a pretty legitimate contender in the Big 12 this season. The ‘Neers hung in there, matching the Cyclones on a yards per play, first downs, and third down efficiency basis, but two picks ultimately doomed WVU to a 1-2 record as the darling of the underdog picks.
This week:
A former PAC 12 team hasn’t gone east and won yet this year (though Oregon probably should tonight, but it is Purdue, so that doesn’t really count). And how does USC recover after last week and the week before and the Michigan game. Can’t imagine they show up with their best effort.
AUDGTHETTPTU Season Record: 3-4
Vote of the Week: BYU -9
Any team, any line, any total - no requirements, just vibes, courtesy of K Boss.
Last week (BYU -3 ✅): Kalani Sitake has this team out to its first 6-0 start since 2020, putting a holy beatdown on Arizona and covering by a casual 19 points. The Cougs forced four turnovers and kept penalties to a minimum in yet another defense of their home stadium. Did we take the BYU under 4.5 wins on the season? We sure did! Lesson learned for trying to guess what was going to happen in a conference that was hard to predict even before their top two contenders fled for the SEC.
This week: Back to the well on the soda queens, as we double down on the one-man “walks into a bar” joke that is BYU’s Jewish quarterback Jake Retzlaff. Jake’s junior college exploits took him from the Golden West Rustlers to the Riverside Tigers, and now, he’s leading a bowl-eligible-in-the-minimum-possible-number-of-games Cougars team. Anything is possible through hard work, perseverance, and the United States Department of Justice’s ruling on transfer eligibility rules.
VOTW Season Record: 3-4
Sicko Mode Ick of the Week: New Mexico/Utah State u78.5
The grossest plays for true sickos only, courtesy of POC.
Last week: No play.
This week: A brief list of things that are fewer than the number of points Vegas expects to be scored in this game:
number of teeth in two separate human skulls (64)
Bradley Beal’s ranking on ESPN’s NBA Top 100 (70)
number of products affected in the BrucePac meat recall (75)
number of years Arnold Schwarzenegger, Kareem Abdul-Jabbar, and Larry David have been alive (77)
number of strokes Rory McIlory recorded in the opening round of the 2024 Open Championship (78)
SMIOTW Season Record: 3-3
Big Cat's Make 'Em Say Meow Catnip of the Week: Missouri -4, Ohio +3.5, Kentucky 1H -0.5
College Against the Spread (CATS) picks focused on large feline mascots, courtesy of Dubov.
Last week: No play.
This week:
We didn’t have a play last week, and the football gods took notice. This week they blessed us with not one, not two, but three tasty, tasty picks. Bobcats and tigers and wildcats, oh my!
This menagerie of large felines takes us first to CoMo where we will be witness to some cat on cat crime. The Good Tigers got right last week with eyes still on a CFP berth, while The Bad Tigers continued their losing ways. Auburn is seemingly committed to their QB who I can only describe as “JV backup.” Does Payton Thorne have the Hugh Freeze tapes in his possession? I can’t imagine any other reason he’s starting. Mizzou by a billion.
Next up: The Battle of the Bricks! A spicy little matchup in Ohio as the Bobs look to stay atop the MAC. They’ve got a great rushing attack (26th) and Miami (OH) stinks at run defense (96th). RUN. THE. DAMN. BALL.
Finally, we end our day under the lights in the Swamp. Big news out of the Gator camp as Mertz is done for the season and it’ll be freshman DJ Lagway the rest of the way. The consensus is DJ is gonna be BMOC in the not so distant future, but is he ready to face a tough defense *this week*? Kentucky is 3rd in total defense and you know they’re gonna scheme up some stuff to pressure Lagway early and often. Things can get weird in the Swamp but I think if Kentucky confuses Lagway and gets some early stops the crowd might turn on their team again and allow Kentucky to get to the locker room with the lead.
BCMESMCOTW Season Record: 2-4
Tiny Meat Lock of the Week: Fresno State/Nevada u49.5, Ball State +27.5
Obscure G5 and FCS picks, courtesy of Nate.
Last week (Nevada +3.5 ✅): There’s nothing like the horror of watching a line or the money split slide away from you at the speed of an Evan Stewart go route, which is what happened to me with my early week Oregon State -4 bet. Ooh, shiny SP+ number! Ahh, a mismatch on the offensive line! I better get in on the Beavs early!
Nope. Pack win outright. Never fade Tiny Meat.
This week: Two sliders on deck for you this week. A hearty, protein-forward appetizer. Mikey Keene and his noodle arm head out to face the aforementioned Nevada squad, and the Cardinals get to try and snipe a cover off Diego Pavia and a Vanderbilt team that is smack dab in the middle of a Bama win / Kentucky win / Texas next week sandwich spot.
TMLOTW Season Record: 4-3
Confirmed Ball Knower Props of the Week
Player props for true #heads, courtesy of Zach.
Last week (3-1):
Three perfect weeks + three picks later, Avery Johnson failed to cover to his number, and the streak ended at 15. Am I upset about the streak ending? Absolutely not. 15-1 over a four week span is electric, and the winnings are still in the accounts of everyone who tailed. I stand by the logic of the Avery pick, although maybe it being such a popular pick was the biggest red flag possible. Didn’t hurt that I was in Autzen Stadium watching the Ducks assert themselves as the new Kings of the BIG 10 while Avery was taking sacks in Boulder.
This week:
This week’s picks begin with another column favorite who I’ll be cheering for in person on Saturday night:
Gunnar Helm (TEX) o40.5 Receiving Yards
The thesis for Helm last week was:
“Oddsmakers just aren’t properly adjusting for Helm’s splits with Ewers vs. recent games with Arch.”Helm could hit this as a piece of a thriving Texas Passing Game, or via a series of checkdowns if Oklahoma is successfully creating pressure on Quinn, this prop having a clear path to cashing regardless of game script combined with the books not properly pricing in the Ewers/Arch splits for Helm make it my favorite prop of the week.”
Sub out Oklahoma for Georgia and all of this holds true, although I would say it’s “only” my second favorite prop this week. Paid subscribers knew to jump on Helm when it opened at 33.5, but this is still a great bet. I have a feeling Helm’s prop next game will close above 50, but until then I’ll keep hammering it.
Xavier Restrepo (MFL) o84.5 Receiving Yards
This line opened at 80.5 and immediately jumped up, and I wouldn’t be shocked to see it close over 90. Louisville’s struggling DB group is getting star CB Quincy Riley back, but one CB only makes so much of a difference in a zone heavy scheme. Restrepo lit up Louisville for 193 yards last year, and I’d expect him to finish with a yardage closer total to that 193 than the 84.5 yards his prop is set at. Restrepo has cleared 84.5 yards in all but two games this year, one of which was a blowout against Ball State. This is my favorite bet of the week.
On the other side, I like Louisville freshman RB Isaac Brown to cover 70.5 yards rushing, but Restrepo is the better bet and I’m not picking two from the same game.
Garrett Nussmeier (LSU) Over 303.5 Passing Yards
All aboard the Nuss bus! Similar to Restrepo, Nussmeier has cleared this number in all but two games this year, but one of those two was a blowout. (Nussmeier finished with 302 against Nichols State)
Arkansas run defense is legit and is PFF’s 29th highest graded unit against the run, but the Hogs are not nearly as good against the pass. Arkansas is 76th in PFF’s pass-rush grade and has the 108th ranked coverage grade in the country. The hogs success rate against the pass ranks 82nd in the nation, and a week against Nussmeier and LSU’s talented pass catchers should make all of these ranks even worse as Garrett covers with ease.
There are a few picks that I was hopping to make as my fourth here, but the Square Attack’s favorite place to wager hasn’t listed them, so while they aren’t official picks if you see Zeon Chriss or Kalel Mullings rushing overs listed, take them.
Hinckley Ropati (BYU) Over 46.5 Rushing Yards
There’s nothing better than starting the week off with a Friday night winner. While I don’t expect Ropati to cover his number on his first carry like Jai’Den Thomas did for us last week, Ropati is back healthy and ready to run all over a horrible Oklahoma State run defense. Oklahoma State’s run defense has a PFF grade of 61.8, which is 8.2 points lower than the next lowest team in the Big 12. Ropati should surpass his career average of 5.1 ypc against the cowboys sieve like run d, and I expect a positive game script to give Ropati ample opportunity to fly by this number.
CBKPOTW Season Record: 22-7
Mad Max TUNDERDOME/TOVERDRIVE Pick of the Week: [NO PLAY]
Sharp totals, courtesy of Tav.
Last week (Ole Miss/LSU o62.5 ❌): It is very difficult for two teams to hit a combined 62.5 points if they score a combined 0.0 points in the first quarter, but the Rebs and the Tigers did their best anyways. I’d make this best again 10 times out of 10. Scared money doesn’t make money.
This week: No play.
MMTPOTW Season Record: 2-5
Dead To Us
Each week we welcome the teams, players, and betting strategies that have burnt us the worst to the Dead To Us afterlife. New for this week, we retire a couple of picks from the newsletter entirely!
Louisiana Tech. Blows an extremely straightforward 1H -6.5 cover thanks to an offsides on the kickoff of the last drive of the half, a 15 yard penalty for a defensive lineman continuing to play after his helmet came off, and the NMSU kicker drilling a 50 yard field goal at the buzzer.
Georgia State. Down 8 with 8 to play, goes on a seven minute drive that stalls at the 10 and ultimately fizzles out for zero points. Gives up an 85 yard rushing TD with 100 seconds remaining on the very next play to lose the +8 push and +9.5 pregame line bets. Genuinely would not be surprised if it came to light that this coach was shaving points.
New League, Who Dis. Finishes 0-5 on the year after USC vomits all over themselves to lose in OT to Penn State at home. ESPN and the NCAA, we will never forgive you for what you’ve done to our precious regional conferences. There’s no putting the genie back in the bottle.
Five Dollar Vibes Parlay. Also finishes 0-5 on the year after losing five straight parlays by one leg. Don’t bet parlays, kids.
Slush Fund Update
The Square Attack Slush Fund tracks the success of our main weekly picks ($25 units, $2500 starting balance). Note: Party Favors are not included for the purposes of the Slush Fund.
2024 Square Attack Season Record: 58-55
Slush Fund Account Balance: $2,682.99
CFB Watch Grid
Courtesy of Jason Kirk, one of the Square Attack Editorial Board’s favorite CFB writers. Follow him on Twitter here and on Substack at JasonKirk.fyi.
