A Man Who Does Not Think For Himself Does Not Think At All
We expand our vocabularies and our minds as we enter Week 5.
Welcome to week five of the Square Attack newsletter! As I write this, I still have the faint taste of chalk in my mouth, both from the combination of last week’s generally-straightforward college football gambling slate and the mint Tums that I employed to combat several rounds of White Claws and fried food at the Satellite Tavern. A handful of members of the Editorial Board descended upon Portland’s premier indoor/outdoor sports bar on Saturday, only to find six of the eight patio TVs commandeered by the local chapter of the Penn State Alumni Association. We’re so glad they could watch the Nittany Lions hang over 700 yards of offense on a Kent State team comprised primarily of future dentists and accountants from every available replay angle, and that they brought their own PA speaker to play PSU’s third down song at comical volumes about 15 feet from my head. Thank goodness we had the dulcet tones and razor-sharp insight of [checks notes] Gary “I Learned Offensive Strategy In 1971 And My Opinions About It Have Not Changed In Half A Century” Danielson playing on the USC-Michigan game over in our section to round out the audio environment. (If you prefer your sonic headaches to arrive in a more intentional fashion, please enjoy this 90 minute mix from my appearance at the Beat Farm music festival earlier this month:)
Alas! Despite the suboptimal viewing experience, we were able to enjoy at least a handful of wins to go with our wings - Navy, Rutgers, and Duke all rolled, and the books took a bath on Tennessee both from a spread and a total perspective.
What stuck out to me most from the weekend that was in the CFB betting world were the games that ended in truly cartoonish final scores. Inspired by the concept of Scorigami, an invention of Jon Bois describing an exact game score that has never occurred before, I’ve selected a sampling of last week’s matchups in order to attempt to assign some new terminology that I invite you to spread among your gambling peers.
TSUNAMI GAME: For when one team is favored by 30 or more, but wins by 60 or more. Traditional offensive powerhouse Pitt almost got there last week, with a a 73-17 beatdown on Youngstown State, covering a spread of 30.5 by 25.5 points.
QUICKSAND GAME: For when two teams combine to score half or fewer of a pregame total under 45. Cal and FSU almost achieved this last week in a 14-9 slog where the pregame total was 44.
DOGWALKED: For teams that lose by 30 points or more, to underdogs of 7 points or more. South Alabama was a +8 dog on the road at Appalachian St, and they came out and blew the doors off the ‘Neers, 48-14.
SCORGASM: For a game in which both teams combine to double the pregame total. The acid trip that was SJSU-WSU ended 52-54, obliterating the total of 55. SMU-TCU came close as well, with 108 points in a game with a pregame total of 58.5. We even had a couple of true Scorgasms in Clemson vs NC State (Tigers rolled 59-35 on a pregame total of 44), as well as Navy (of all teams) vs Memphis, where the Sea Troops dominated 56-44 in a game with a pregame total of 47.
SIMULTANEOUS SCORGASM: For when both teams in game each score more than the pregame total, individually. This prestigious award goes to JMU 70, UNC 50 - 120 points in a game with a pregame total of 48.5! The Dukes were also 11 point underdogs, and only a few late TDs saved the Tarheels from being a victim of a Dogwalking as well (see, it’s catching on, many people are saying it).
Be on the lookout for opportunities to work these terms into your gambling lifestyle, and please tweet us @TheSquareAttack if you see one in the wild.
A brief reminder: we’ve got two useful weekly gambling resources hiding behind a (very inexpensive) paywall, the Early Lines on Monday and the Lock Report on Thursdays. I do the research so you don’t have to, and the new SP+ breakdown in the Early Lines has been very useful so far this year. Check it out with a $5/mo sub here:
Enough business talk. Let’s get into it!
Disclaimer: NFA, DYOR, BOL. All lines/totals accurate as of whenever we happened to look them up. All times Pacific. This newsletter often shatters the Gmail size limit. Read in your desktop or mobile browser for the full Square Attack experience.
Friday Night Value Play: [NO PLAY]
Friday evening CFB picks, courtesy of Nate.
Last week (Illinois/Nebraska u43 ❌): This publication’s disdain for Illinois QB Luke Altmyer is well-documented, after he blew the FNVP in spectacular fashion in Week 2 last year. And so our hate shall deepen, after Altmyer tossed 4 TDs including the OT game-winner to sink Dylan Raiola and the Cornhuskers. The whole Raiola/Mahomes thing is officially getting weird, and it’s resulting in some decidedly un-Big-Ten outcomes. Over 700 combined yards of offense, both teams over 5 yards per play, 45 combined first downs, and over 50% on third down - this is not Big Ten football!
This week: We’re going to let the processors in the FNVP Supercomputer cool off for a week. Weird slate, big Saturday, weather changing - let’s recharge the batteries. Some ideas on where else to hunt #value and spend your Friday evening in degenerate fashion:
Go watch your local high school football matchup and see if you can get someone to give you long odds on a D/ST TD.
Visit your local bar and challenge a stranger to a matchup in billiards or darts, whichever you’re worse at.
Stop by your nearest college club slash local DJ show and bet with a friend on how long it takes to hear a Chappell Roan or Charli XCX song.
See? It doesn’t need to always be college football - the action is out there, waiting for you.
FNVP Season Record: 1-3
Hot Ones Guest Pick of the Week: James Madison -19
Random, GameDay-style guest picks, courtesy of whoever we feel like plugging in this week.
Last week (Cal ML ❌): A short and unsuccessful stint for Hot Ones Guest Picker Karl Marx. Your thoughts, Karl?
Comrades, today we witness the painful truth that even in sport, the forces of reaction can temporarily prevail over the cause of progress. The Cal Bears, despite a valiant effort led by their quarterback throwing for over 300 yards, were stymied by the defensive apparatus of Florida State, falling 14-9. Though the bourgeois quarterback of FSU, DJ Uiagalelei, managed a meager 10 yards per completion—an indictment of their counter-revolutionary offense—the proletarian Bears could not translate their numerical dominance into victory. The second half, much like the oppressed masses under capitalism, saw Cal silenced, unable to break free from the chains of Florida State’s defense. Yet, as with all historical struggles, defeat is only temporary. The revolution continues, and we learn from this loss to strike harder at the next opportunity.
This week: This week’s Hot Ones Guest Picker is James Madison, fourth President of the United States of America.
Fellow citizens, as I contemplate the impending contest between the Me University Dukes and the Ball State Cardinals, it is with great confidence that I assert the superiority of our noble Dukes. Favored by 19 points, I can assure you that such a margin does not adequately reflect the dominance they shall exert on the field of play. The principles of strategy, discipline, and unity that govern this republic are embodied within the Dukes, and it is these very principles that will guide them to a decisive victory by no less than four touchdowns. Our team’s offense, like the very Constitution itself, is a well-constructed mechanism, built to withstand pressure and to execute with precision.
On the contrary, the Ball State Cardinals, though commendable in their efforts, are ill-prepared to contend with the might of Me University’s forces. The balance of power rests firmly with the Dukes, whose athletic superiority shall be evident from the first whistle. I predict that, much like the triumph of liberty over tyranny, our Dukes will emerge victorious, their superiority resounding like a clarion call for freedom. This will not merely be a victory; it shall be a statement of the enduring strength of Me University, just as this republic, built on principles of fairness and justice, endures in the face of all opposition.
HOGPOTW Season Record: 2-2
Red White and Blue Support The Troops Pick of the Week: Navy -3.5
Service academy picks, courtesy of Doty.
Last week (Army -6.5 ✅): It’s been a blitzkrieg of a start for the RWABSTTPOTW, as Army came out and clipped Rice’s wings pretty much immediately. The Land Troops racked up a 28-0 lead by halftime and QB Bryson Daily accounted for all five Army TDs, three on the ground and two through the air. It’s only through a cruel twist of scheduling fate that Black Knights weren’t eligible to be picked again today, on account of the fact they played last night, but paid subscribers were all over Army -13 vs Temple when it was posted in the Early Lines email early this week. To those who bet it down to 12 right before Army kicked Owl ass for a third consecutive week: you could have just donated that money to the Department of Defense directly and saved yourself the trouble.
This week: Our quote of the week comes from Mike Ianniello of the G5 Deep Dive, one of the Square Attack’s favorite CFB podcasts:
Stopping the triple option is a very complicated thing to do. It is something that only the very smartest of coaches will be able to slow down, this scheme. And Trent Dilfer is an idiot.
We’ve had a great time fading UAB the past few years, so here’s to hoping they keep the Dilf at the helm as long as possible. Navy QB Blake Horvath is averaging 10.8 YPC this season, and the Blazers are bottom 30 in rushing EPA allowed. We saw what I believe to be a very similar game no more than 24 hours ago between Army and Temple - if one team is excellent at running, and one team sucks at stopping the run, take the ground game and lay the points.
RWABSTTPOTW Season Record: 4-0
Fraud of the Week: Arizona ML
Top 25 teams to lose outright, courtesy of Cogan.
Last week (Georgia Tech ML ❌, Oklahoma ML ❌): Georgia Tech outgained Louisville by 86 yards, generated four more first downs, held the ball for five more minutes, and had 2nd and 2 at the +5 yard line with a chance to go up four deep in the third quarter. They lost by 12. Oklahoma, on the other hand, got outgained by 123 yards, turned the ball over three times, and were out-possessed by 11 minutes against a top-6 Tennessee team. They lost by 10. This goes to show you that there are plenty of fun and unique ways to lose a college football game.
This week: Back to the well on the Desert Cats against a Utah team that is somehow undefeated despite their starting quarterback hovering somewhere between “dinged up” and “dead in a ditch somewhere outside of Park City” for the entire season. Has anyone seen Cam Rising recently? Like, in person, up close? Are we approaching an Avril Lavigne / Paul McCartney situation here? I need a photo of him holding today’s newspaper, immediately! THE SQUARE ATTACK DEMANDS PROOF OF LIFE!
FOTW Season Record: 2-5
New League, Who Dis? of the Week: [NO PLAY]
Picks for recently-realigned teams, courtesy of MvB.
Last week (LSU -21.5 ❌): This pick might come from Mike vB, but UCLA pulled a Mike McD in Rounders in this game, hanging around, hanging around, showing they’ve got alligator blood against a Bayou Bengals squad that seemed unable to get UCLA on tilt until it was too late to cover. The offense did their part, racking up over 350 passing yards, allowing zero turnovers, and only punting once. But - and stop me if you’ve heard this before - the LSU defense had trouble bottling up a quarterback, as Ethan Garbers amassed nearly 300 yards through the air himself. I would like to thank whatever offshore programming team is responsible for coding the AllGames365.com live betting platform for ensuring that I was unable to get any in-game action down on this game, saving me at least a unit or two.
This week: This who “New League” concept seemed like a good idea at the start of the season, when there was a defined pool of new league candidates to select from. However, as we watch the infectious symbiote that is the Pac-12 conference latch on to several new hosts across the country (to varying degrees of success), we may need to pause laboratory experimentation while we try and get our arms around the sheer amount of data that we’re pushing through our models. Watch this space.
NLWDOTW Season Record: 0-4
All (Under)Dogs Go To Heaven, Especially Those That Pull The Upset: Washington State ML
Underdog plays, courtesy of Tom.
Last week (Coastal Carolina ML ❌): Here’s an eye-popping stat for you - Virginia RB Xavier Brown for 171 yards on nine carries in this game. Here’s a weirder one - he didn’t score any TDs! I have to imagine that 19 (!!!) yards per carry is the highest without a touchdown in a long time for someone with that many attempts. Virginia also gained over 300 total yards on the ground for the first time since 2018, and this one was never within two scores after the end of the first quarter. Coastal continues to play in downright silly games.
This week: Washington State is 4-0 for the first time since…last year. What happened after that? Well, probably one of the funniest eight-game stretches in CFB history. But it’s a new dawn, it’s a new day, and the Cougs are hoping they can cause Ashton Jeanty and Boise State some gastrointestinal distress of their own - take it away, Tom:
My pick this week is WSU. I have tried to talk myself out of it every which way, but I just can’t. Full disclosure - I had to wake up with my son at about 4 am and was already thinking about college football bets and was distracted and trusted a fart a little too much and shit my pants. It felt like a sign. What team literally has had their name turned into a word that means to shit your pants. Wazzu, couging it. Also, the game I was considering probably second was BYU who is playing Baylor who shit their pants last week against Colorado. So maybe both of these teams with Cougar mascots win. Honestly love them both.
AUDGTHETTPTU Season Record: 2-2
Vote of the Week: LSU-South Alabama o65.5, Liberty -3.5, Washington State ML
Any team, any line, any total - no requirements, just vibes, courtesy of K Boss.
Last week (Liberty -7.5 ✅): This was a nervy one for not only the elections committee over at Vote of the Week HQ, but also for us Liberty o10.5 RSW ticket holders. ECU raced out to an early 17-0 lead and things were looking dire for the Flames after the Pirates picked off QB Kaidon Salter deep in Liberty territory. But, a missed field goal kicked off a 35-7 rally and the dream of another undefeated CUSA season remains alive for Jamey Chadwell’s crew. Quite the win prob chart on this one:
This week: It’s Pat’s birthday this weekend, and we are therefore launching the nukes on a BDAY PARLAY. We’re hoping for a Scorgasm in LSU-USA, Liberty to keep up their winning ways (hopefully with a faster start this week), and the Cougs to nip the Broncos for their first ranked win. It’s dastardly, it’s daring, it’s over 20-1 odds - let’s pay for some cake and candles for the man, ONE TIME!
[Ed. Note: In the interest of journalistic integrity, I do feel compelled to mention that Army -12.5 was also included as a fourth leg of this parlay when submitted through the encrypted Square Attack Tips Line.]
VOTW Season Record: 2-2
Sicko Mode Ick of the Week: Illinois +18
The grossest plays for true sickos only, courtesy of POC.
Last week (Bowling Green +23 ✅): This is what you want to see out of your road dog picks. Even if they have a truly gross offensive first half (which the Falcons did, scoring three whole points), they need to be at least respectable on defense (which the Falcons were, holding A&M to 7 or fewer points in every individual quarter). The matched A&M’s 5.7 yards per play, converted two fourth downs, and minimized penalty yardage. Is the going to win you football games? Not every time. Is it going to ensure you cover spreads of 3+ TDs in those football games? It sure as hell is.
This week: We’ll have to close our eyes and launch ourselves once more into the Depending On Luke Altmyer void here, in the hopes that him and BRET BOWL-EMA can keep this within shouting distance against a Penn State team that narrowly avoided getting punked by Bowling Green before two bye weeks in a row. Yes, I as much as anyone know the Nittany Lions technically played a game last week. It was against Kent State. We know better than to assign any priors to a game involving Kent State. If Altmyer can hang on to the rock, there’s plenty of opportunity for the Illini to at least give the Penn State defense some problems. If you have any freeplay left (which, I know you don’t), I actually don’t hate a ML flier here.
SMIOTW Season Record: 2-2
Big Cat's Make 'Em Say Meow Catnip of the Week: South Alabama 1H +12
College Against the Spread (CATS) picks focused on large feline mascots, courtesy of Dubov.
Last week (Northwestern +11.5 ❌): El equipo de fútbol de la Universidad de Northwestern anotó el sábado un total de CINCO PUNTOS, algo extremadamente raro, en su partido contra los Washington Huskies. Les deseamos lo mejor en su regreso a su estadio en la playa.
This week:
For this week’s pick we’re Callin’ Baton Rouge - and not for the reason you might think.
Brian Kelly is such a strange combination of a ball coach and a child, strange situation poppin’ every other drive.
A replay of last (Thursday) night’s events roll through my mind including Fluff Bothwell and Gio Lopez combining for five TDs.
I need a cup of coffee and a couple dollars change to fade this LSU team (0-4 ATS) that hasn’t been able to put together a convincing 1H this season.
vs. USC: tied at half (lost by 7)
vs. Nicholls: +9 at half (won by 23)
@ South Carolina: -8 at half (won by 3)
vs. UCLA: tied at half (won by 17)
I gotta send my love (for the Jags) down to Baton Rouge.
BCMESMCOTW Season Record: 2-2
Tiny Meat Lock of the Week: South Alabama +21
Obscure G5 and FCS picks, courtesy of Nate.
Last week (New Mexico State/Sam Houston State o44.5 ✅): So close, and yet, so far away. New Mexico State is awful, and I’m pretty sure “Santino Marucci” is a better-fitting name for someone trying to kill Colin Farrell in The Penguin than it is for an FBS quarterback. Neither team cleared 75 yards passing in an exceedingly forgettable 31-11 snoozefest.
This week: Call this the Meow Mix Pick Of The Week, because we have Big Cat and Tiny Meat alignment! We’re opening a double can of #value here with a full game bet to go with our first half nibble. I want chicken, I want liver, come on Jaguars, please deliver!
TMLOTW Season Record: 2-2
Confirmed Ball Knower Props of the Week
Player props for true #heads, courtesy of Zach.
Last week (4-0):
You don’t need to know ball to be good at gambling, and knowing ball certainly won’t guarantee that you make money gambling… but it certainly helps your chances.
While readers are notoriously skeptical about tailing the CBKPOTW, we hope to continue to win over swing bettors in battleground states by focusing on the issues (matchups, relationships, and advanced stats) not playing into media narratives (historical trends, meaningless “systems”, and public money).
Last week’s picks were 4-0, Thursday Night was electric, so just #TrustThePropcess and profit.
This week:
DJ Giddens (KSU) o94.5 yards rushing
This number hasn’t moved since open while bettors have instead been hitting Avery Johnson’s total. I personally am on Avery here as well, but despite the KSU QB delivering for us two weeks in a row, I think DJ Giddens is the better bet this week.
Giddens and Johnson should both run all over an Oklahoma State defense that is allowing over 200 ypg rushing, at a clip of almost 5.5 ypc, but Giddens should be the star of the show this week. In two games against P4 teams, OK State allowed RB1’s to rush for 149 and 182 yards, plus Giddens doesn’t come with the threat of sacks that Avery’s prop does. Both are great bets, but Giddens is the official play.
Luke Altmyer (ILL) o179.5 yards passing
For the sake of my upcoming marriage to a a former Penn State student athlete, I need to emphasize that I’m in no way picking Illinois to win or cover. That said, Bowling Green was able to move the ball in the air in a losing effort against Penn State, and Altmyer and Illinois should be able to do the same against Penn State’s injured secondary and relatively disappointing pass rush. Penn State’s defense is still good, and their offense controls the clock with a very slow pace of play, but Illinois chasing points from behind should give this plenty of opportunity to hit. I was tempted to go with Zakhari Franklin o40.5 Receiving yards, but Bowling Green did a bulk of their damage feeding their TE, so will stick with Altmyer as the play here.
Darius Taylor (MIN) u60.5 yards rushing
No sentimental picks here this week, as I’m also fading my hometown Gophers. Taylor is talented, but still healing from a hamstring injury and this matchup is brutal. The Gophers have split their carries more evenly this year, and they should need to pass the ball more than they’d like as they play catchup against this incredible Michigan rushing defense. A number this low against a future NFL back is always at risk of one big run covering, but I trust Michigan to stifle Taylor and the Gophers all game. Michigan is only allowing RB1’s 47 ypg this season, and I don’t expect Taylor to blow by that number here.
Kurtis Rourke (IU) o239.5 yards passing
With all due respect to TAN’s weathermen, we are going to ignore warnings of a Hurricane having a massive impact on a game being played in Indiana. Rourke is a smart experienced player who has been very efficient in Curt Cignetti’s offense this year. Rourke is PFF’s 3rd highest graded QB so far this year, matching his past catchers’ 3rd overall ranking for team receiving grade.
With PFF’s second lowest coverage grade in the BIG 10, Maryland’s defense is much stronger against the run than the pass, and while Rourke’s season averages don’t look gaudy, that’s due to conservative game scripts in blowout wins. The only P5 team Indiana has played so far is UCLA, and Rourke lit up the Bruins going 25-33 for 307 yards and 4 TD’s, expect a similar yardage total for the former Ohio Bobcat QB this week.
CBKPOTW Season Record: 11-6
Mad Max TUNDERDOME Pick of the Week: Georgia/Alabama 1H u24
Sharp totals, courtesy of Tav.
Last week (Monmouth/FIU o58.5 ✅): When someone confidently picks the over in an FBS/FCS matchup, pay extremely close attention, because that person knows something you don’t. In this case, that something was that neither of these teams could give a half a damn about playing anything resembling defense. Let’s assign some of Pitbull’s most famous lines to the various parties involved in this one:
Look up in the sky, it's a bird, it's a plane / No, it's just me, ain't a damn thing changed. - For both QBs in this game, who combined for 723 passing yards.
Modern day Hugh Hef (uh yes) / Playboy to the death (uh yes) / Is he really worldwide? (uh yes). - For Monmouth OC Jeff Gallo, who coordinated a hell of a lot of offense in this game, as the Hawks ran 86 (!!!) plays.
This for anybody going through tough times / Believe me, been there, done that / But every day above ground is a great day, remember that. - For anyone that bet the over on a game with 1000+ yards of offense, 45 first downs, and 87 points.
This week:
Kinda gross but gotta stick to my principles. Basically just capping this as a future Philly D vs Baltimore D NFL matchup. This one always seems a bit “feel it out” 1H, then 2H fireworks. Plus, Georgia offense feels a bit shakier than past years.
MMTPOTW Season Record: 2-2
Five Dollar Vibes Parlay of the Week: Kansas State ML, Texas A&M ML, Utah ML
CFB parlays cooked up in less than one minute, courtesy of Colton.
Last week (Fresno ML ✅, Boise State/Portland State u69 ❌, Hawaii ML ✅): The vibes of the Five Dollar Vibes Parlay might be officially off. For the fourth consecutive week, we went 2/3 on picks, and this week we came up one measly point short of covering. Portland State was doing its job, going way behind to Boise State early and only scraping together one TD through three quarters. Unfortunately, the Vikings decided to get off the mat just long enough to punch in a touchdown early in the fourth, only to let the Broncos trample down the field on their next two possessions to eke over the number. Gross.
This week: Three home favorites, all over -200 odds, all with injury- or competence-related questions at quarterback? What could possibly go wrong?
FDVPOTW Season Record: 0-4
Dead To Us
Each week we welcome the teams, players, and betting strategies that have burnt us the worst to the Dead To Us afterlife.
We welcome the following teams to the Dead To Us ranks:
Kansas. Up 11 with 5 to go against WVU, fails to cover +3. Now 0-4 ATS this year.
Party Favors!
Bite-sized picks that are either fun to watch, fun to write about, or both.
I May Be A Moron But This Has Never Happened Pick Of The Week: UCLA RB T.J. Harden o20.5 yards receiving
Harden has reached this number every single game this year, and has 12 catches on the season. Factor in that UCLA is gonna have to be throwing all game due to the fact that they’ll be down by 40, and Oregon’s secondary will have the UCLA receivers totally locked down, it’s gonna be a bunch of dinking and dunking for their only yards. - h/t Doty
Slush Fund Update
The Square Attack Slush Fund tracks the success of our main weekly picks ($25 units, $2500 starting balance). Note: Party Favors are not included for the purposes of the Slush Fund.
2024 Square Attack Season Record: 34-38
Slush Fund Account Balance: $2,462.03
CFB Watch Grid
Courtesy of Jason Kirk, one of the Square Attack Editorial Board’s favorite CFB writers. Follow him on Twitter here and on Substack at JasonKirk.fyi.